RECESSION CONTINUES TO HOVER OVER THE WORLD - Contd...

HengSeng, the Hong Kong stock index, has broken the 20,000 level. South Korea is under the scan of developed world where nuclear energy matters continues to harass the top officials of the nation. Korean Stock index is also not showing any glimpse of breaking upper records.



India's economy grew at its lowest rate in the first quarter of financial year 2008-09 since last three years. The Reserve Bank of India is all set to rein into record high inflation by applying tight credit policy which remained above 12% level for the past few weeks. Annual growth slowed to 7.90 % in the first quarter of 2008-09 which ended on June 30, significantly lower than the 8.80 % rate reported for the January - March quarter.

Europe also nowhere different at present whole Europe is combating with rising inflation and fresh downward revisions in the growth rate. European inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in almost 16 years to a record high 4% earlier before arriving at 3.8%. Consumer business confidence index is also recorded significant decline and Economic confidence fell in August to 88.80. Brussels has revised the Euro zone growth rate downwards to1.80% from earlier November estimate 2.20%. Economic experts offering a faded hope and a few of them declared that next revision would be 1.30%.

Now the world is witnessing a global slowdown which can be said recession but optimistic experts say it is temporary and can be worked out with revamped financial policies. But at this juncture when the status quo is not allowing the central banks to act any way, one side inflation is rising which is not encouraging the central banks for rate cut and other side slowing economic growth is not supporting the rate hike. Hence forth in the last week Bank of England and European Central Bank kept their interest rates undisturbed, 5% and 4.25% respectively. United States Federal Reserve also kept its rate unchanged in last meeting.

Then utmost what can happen?????

I think US credit market turmoil and high inflation is nowhere supportive in economic way for the world. Russia- Georgia tension, US-Iran-Israel issue and destructive happenings like terrorist attacks, natural calamities and political turmoil all over world is not foreboding good for the world.

The stock markets, commodity markets and financial instruments are heading towards south and not left even an iota of positive happening. Dow Jones, Nasdaq, FTSE, BSE, CAC, KOSPI, HengSeng, Nikkei, Shanghai all these stock exchanges shed their most of last year gains. Simultaneously commodity markets also near to nadir gold, the safe heaven commodity, has fallen more than $200 US after reaching $988US earlier this year. Silver is already near to set a new of the year. Likewise copper, platinum and aluminum are also fallen to lower extreme. Euro, USD, GBP, and Japanese Yen are behaving in the strange way and creating turmoil in the fundamentals of other financial instruments and markets. At present market elements are fighting for the worst rank. If the currency exchange rates changes more than 10% within a week,

The Raison d'être behind whole scenario of financial instability is that, fundamentals have not been respected during last year across the world. Investors have lost confidence over the period of wrong happenings that led to unsystematic investment in the financial markets. As far US, the world largest economy is concern until presidential election (new President) glimpse of hope is far away since it requires a major policy change. If same situation prevails shortly world may face biggest foul turnaround. The whole world need to get together and must make necessary changes in the economical and political policies in order to overcome from this current imbroglio. The fundamentals of the market i.e. Demand and Supply has to be restored. People must realize the real money. G-7 meeting proposals have to be implemented in order to soothe the boiling intricacy of the world.

What can an investor do????

A good investor must workout different strategy for the investment. Meantime investors can stay away from the paper stocks and they can invest in the real asset value market viz. real estate, and commodities viz. Gold, Silver and base metals those runs on fundamentals rather than speculations. This is the best time to invest in housing because the prices are at possible lowest end. Markets with real assets value will perform better than paper assets in coming year. Write to author for feedback at safetradeadvisors@gmail.com or www.safetradeadvisors.com